[peccioli]

O que podemos esperar de lançamento ML Nikon para 2022?


https://www.zsystemuser.com/nikon-z-system-news-and/which-z-camera-will-be-next.html

"The primary candidates: Z30, Z50 II, Z5 II, Z6 III, and Z7 III. The mystery candidates: Z90, Z8, Zf. Anything else seems highly unlikely. So let's consider just the things that would have some likelihood before I present my guess:

Z30 — Absolutely prototyped and ready to go into production. The problem is that the supply chain shortages were already appearing when decision time came. The decision obviously was to funnel parts to higher end cameras with bigger profit margins. The problem now is whether the design will age well when Nikon finally feels that they might be able to handle this higher volume camera, or whether they need to go back and tweak/refine.
Z50 II — Technically, the Zfc took over the Z50 II release. Timing and feature/performance changes of the Zfc were exactly what they would have been for a Z50 II. So the Z50 II is sitting out an iteration cycle, it appears.
Z5 II — This is a tricky one. The Z5 already had many of the Z6 II changes, but using a repurposed, older image sensor (the D750 one). The one thing that would definitely push a Z5 forward is a new image sensor (and new EXPEED), but those are costly things for what needs to remain an entry camera.
Z6 III — With Sony jumping to a 33mp image sensor in the A7 Mark IV, the pressure is on for Nikon to match or leap-frog that in some way. This is a key camera that should have two-year update cycles, so fall 2022 would be the date to watch. The questions are these: what would Nikon have thought needed to be improved with the Z6 II back in 2020 when they started this project, and did the pandemic slow down their ability to do those things?
Z7 III — Similar to the Z6 III: With Sony jumping to a 61mp image sensor in the A7R Mark IV, the pressure was already on for Nikon to match or leap-frog that. Like the Z6, the Z7 should be on two-year update cycles that trigger next in fall 2022, so the question again is what did Nikon set to work on back in 2020?
Z90 — I keep getting hints that Nikon has looked at making a top-end DX mirrorless camera. What I haven't heard is the commitment to do so. Canon and Fujifilm are going to force Nikon's hand here, and at least one of those will be a stacked-sensor model. Thus, the simple question now that we have a Z9 is does Nikon have a DX stacked sensor source they can use to build the DX sibling to the Z9?
Z8 — While people keep hypothesizing on this model, I haven't heard a peep about it nearing production. Even under the D3/D700 scenario that many envision could produce a baby Z9 in Z8 form, one would expect a significant delay before Nikon would do so. Demand for the Z9 is off the charts, and Nikon isn't likely to produce a lower cost, smaller model until they've extracted a full set of tithe from the Nikon faithful. Moreover, there are three ways a Z8 could go: (1) mini Z9; (2) "h" type version of Z9 (lower pixel count, faster response); and (3) high pixel count.
Zf — Unfortunately (that's my view, maybe not yours) the Zfc "success" likely gave added wind towards making a full frame version. It's easy enough to do, as the Z5 would form the base for a Zf much like the Z50 did so for the Zfc. You don't need EXPEED7 or a new image sensor for a nostalgia, casual camera, after all."

[vangelismm]

Só não consigo entender o que seria a Z8, seria Z9 com sensor de menos MP?

[peccioli]

O que podemos esperar de lançamento ML Nikon para 2022?


https://www.zsystemuser.com/nikon-z-system-news-and/which-z-camera-will-be-next.html

"The primary candidates: Z30, Z50 II, Z5 II, Z6 III, and Z7 III. The mystery candidates: Z90, Z8, Zf. Anything else seems highly unlikely. So let's consider just the things that would have some likelihood before I present my guess:

Z30 — Absolutely prototyped and ready to go into production. The problem is that the supply chain shortages were already appearing when decision time came. The decision obviously was to funnel parts to higher end cameras with bigger profit margins. The problem now is whether the design will age well when Nikon finally feels that they might be able to handle this higher volume camera, or whether they need to go back and tweak/refine.
Z50 II — Technically, the Zfc took over the Z50 II release. Timing and feature/performance changes of the Zfc were exactly what they would have been for a Z50 II. So the Z50 II is sitting out an iteration cycle, it appears.
Z5 II — This is a tricky one. The Z5 already had many of the Z6 II changes, but using a repurposed, older image sensor (the D750 one). The one thing that would definitely push a Z5 forward is a new image sensor (and new EXPEED), but those are costly things for what needs to remain an entry camera.
Z6 III — With Sony jumping to a 33mp image sensor in the A7 Mark IV, the pressure is on for Nikon to match or leap-frog that in some way. This is a key camera that should have two-year update cycles, so fall 2022 would be the date to watch. The questions are these: what would Nikon have thought needed to be improved with the Z6 II back in 2020 when they started this project, and did the pandemic slow down their ability to do those things?
Z7 III — Similar to the Z6 III: With Sony jumping to a 61mp image sensor in the A7R Mark IV, the pressure was already on for Nikon to match or leap-frog that. Like the Z6, the Z7 should be on two-year update cycles that trigger next in fall 2022, so the question again is what did Nikon set to work on back in 2020?
Z90 — I keep getting hints that Nikon has looked at making a top-end DX mirrorless camera. What I haven't heard is the commitment to do so. Canon and Fujifilm are going to force Nikon's hand here, and at least one of those will be a stacked-sensor model. Thus, the simple question now that we have a Z9 is does Nikon have a DX stacked sensor source they can use to build the DX sibling to the Z9?
Z8 — While people keep hypothesizing on this model, I haven't heard a peep about it nearing production. Even under the D3/D700 scenario that many envision could produce a baby Z9 in Z8 form, one would expect a significant delay before Nikon would do so. Demand for the Z9 is off the charts, and Nikon isn't likely to produce a lower cost, smaller model until they've extracted a full set of tithe from the Nikon faithful. Moreover, there are three ways a Z8 could go: (1) mini Z9; (2) "h" type version of Z9 (lower pixel count, faster response); and (3) high pixel count.
Zf — Unfortunately (that's my view, maybe not yours) the Zfc "success" likely gave added wind towards making a full frame version. It's easy enough to do, as the Z5 would form the base for a Zf much like the Z50 did so for the Zfc. You don't need EXPEED7 or a new image sensor for a nostalgia, casual camera, after all."

"Okay, that's the likely potential cameras Nikon might introduce in 2022, but what are the odds, and why? I'll outline this in the likely probability they'll happen in 2022. I'll use a straight odds here, e.g. 4:1 means a 80% chance of happening, as there's four chances in five it will happen:

Z6 III is 9:1 (90%) — The Canon R6 and Sony A7 Mark IV just make this a must do on Nikon's part. The only question I'd have is whether we get the announcement on the two-year boundary in fall, or if this product slid a bit in development due to the pandemic issues and becomes a late 2022, early 2023 launch. I'd guess 24mp stacked (or improved readout) before 33mp, but either is possible.
Z7 III is 6:1 (85%) — Likewise, the Canon R5 and Sony A7R Mark IV (and likely Mark V in 2022) make this another must do on Nikon's part to stay competitive. There's the easy path (just add EXPEED7 and all it provides) and the less easy path (new image sensor). It's the less easy path that lowers the odds, as any new sensor juggling in this next round of releases could get tricky for them due to fab availability. Sensor cost is a little less a factor on the Z7 III, so there's the possibility of it simply using the Z9 sensor but with a performance scaled down due to the body limitations (power and heat, basically).
Z30 is 1:1 (50%) — Nikon still needs volume to be truly competitive, and with their current "entry" camera holding at US$850 (body), that's not likely going to get them there. That said, there is an alternative to a Z30: just lower the Z50 price significantly, which is why, coupled with the supply chain issues, this camera isn't a lock for 2022. It's really tough to call this one from outside Nikon, as the Z30 is essentially a bean counter decision, and bean counters don't leak information.
Zf is 1:1 (50%) — The highish odds are solely because of the ease in producing it. There are no technology innovations here, it's basically a design problem, and one that Nikon's solved twice in the past and is getting better at. On the flip side, this is not a volume launch, or a critical competitive product, it's a "milk some profits out of the legacy" product, something Nikon likes to do from time to time. As such, this kind of product gets done and approved through a different mechanism than the competitive analysis driving the main line. However, I think the "success" of the Zfc coupled with the fact that the Df continued to be sold in the DSLR line tells us that Nikon likes having this kind of camera around. It's not a camera that goes on sale, but one that produces a modest, predictable, profitable volume.
Z90 is 1:4 (20%) — A Z90 fits nicely into all the themes of Nikon's current strategy (even lenses, as the primary driver of this camera will be wildlife ;~). The big question is whether the D300/D500 crowd would move over—remember, there's a 400mm PF lens coming—and whether there's an image sensor that can be put in place that has the necessary performance this model would need to have. Does Fujifilm have an exclusivity lock on the upcoming APS-C stacked sensor from Sony Semiconductor? That's one of the reasons why I rate the odds so low. "

[peccioli]

Só não consigo entender o que seria a Z8, seria Z9 com sensor de menos MP?

Ou com um sensor de maior contagem de MP e menor capacidade de fps.

[peccioli]

O que podemos esperar de lançamento ML Nikon para 2022?


https://www.zsystemuser.com/nikon-z-system-news-and/which-z-camera-will-be-next.html

"The primary candidates: Z30, Z50 II, Z5 II, Z6 III, and Z7 III. The mystery candidates: Z90, Z8, Zf. Anything else seems highly unlikely. So let's consider just the things that would have some likelihood before I present my guess:

Z30 — Absolutely prototyped and ready to go into production. The problem is that the supply chain shortages were already appearing when decision time came. The decision obviously was to funnel parts to higher end cameras with bigger profit margins. The problem now is whether the design will age well when Nikon finally feels that they might be able to handle this higher volume camera, or whether they need to go back and tweak/refine.
Z50 II — Technically, the Zfc took over the Z50 II release. Timing and feature/performance changes of the Zfc were exactly what they would have been for a Z50 II. So the Z50 II is sitting out an iteration cycle, it appears.
Z5 II — This is a tricky one. The Z5 already had many of the Z6 II changes, but using a repurposed, older image sensor (the D750 one). The one thing that would definitely push a Z5 forward is a new image sensor (and new EXPEED), but those are costly things for what needs to remain an entry camera.
Z6 III — With Sony jumping to a 33mp image sensor in the A7 Mark IV, the pressure is on for Nikon to match or leap-frog that in some way. This is a key camera that should have two-year update cycles, so fall 2022 would be the date to watch. The questions are these: what would Nikon have thought needed to be improved with the Z6 II back in 2020 when they started this project, and did the pandemic slow down their ability to do those things?
Z7 III — Similar to the Z6 III: With Sony jumping to a 61mp image sensor in the A7R Mark IV, the pressure was already on for Nikon to match or leap-frog that. Like the Z6, the Z7 should be on two-year update cycles that trigger next in fall 2022, so the question again is what did Nikon set to work on back in 2020?
Z90 — I keep getting hints that Nikon has looked at making a top-end DX mirrorless camera. What I haven't heard is the commitment to do so. Canon and Fujifilm are going to force Nikon's hand here, and at least one of those will be a stacked-sensor model. Thus, the simple question now that we have a Z9 is does Nikon have a DX stacked sensor source they can use to build the DX sibling to the Z9?
Z8 — While people keep hypothesizing on this model, I haven't heard a peep about it nearing production. Even under the D3/D700 scenario that many envision could produce a baby Z9 in Z8 form, one would expect a significant delay before Nikon would do so. Demand for the Z9 is off the charts, and Nikon isn't likely to produce a lower cost, smaller model until they've extracted a full set of tithe from the Nikon faithful. Moreover, there are three ways a Z8 could go: (1) mini Z9; (2) "h" type version of Z9 (lower pixel count, faster response); and (3) high pixel count.
Zf — Unfortunately (that's my view, maybe not yours) the Zfc "success" likely gave added wind towards making a full frame version. It's easy enough to do, as the Z5 would form the base for a Zf much like the Z50 did so for the Zfc. You don't need EXPEED7 or a new image sensor for a nostalgia, casual camera, after all."

"I do know two things: (1) Nikon wishes to be aggressive and faster at iterating than they have been (but the pandemic intruded); and (2) they really do wish to get to shutterless throughout the lineup. Put those two things together and one could see them centering on three sensors: 20mp DX stacked, 24mp FX stacked, and 45mp FX stacked. I don't know that's what they'll do, but the only way you'll achieve #2 and keep costs down is to push the entire manufacturing volume to stacked."

[YP]

Z6 III e Z7 III, será que vem mesmo esse ano?

Pois esse ciclo de 2 anos é um pouco curto, a versão II veio de emergência para corrigir uns erros bobos da primeira geração.
Digamos que a única coisa que deveria melhorar seria o autofoco, tentar superar a Canon R6/Sony A7IV.

[felipemendes]

Ou com um sensor de maior contagem de MP e menor capacidade de fps.

Só não consigo entender o que seria a Z8, seria Z9 com sensor de menos MP?

Já eu imagino exatamente o que ele disse: algo como D3/D700: mesmo sensor, corpos diferentes. Provavelmente a diferença seria em velocidade.

[vangelismm]

Mas não ficaria muito próxima da Z7?

[Gabriel Büll]

Penso na Z8 com mais de 60MP, e tomara que venha pixel shift e flash 1/500s.

[Lindsay]

pra quem achava que a Nikon estava morrendo... 

[peccioli]

Já eu imagino exatamente o que ele disse: algo como D3/D700: mesmo sensor, corpos diferentes. Provavelmente a diferença seria em velocidade.

É uma possibilidade bem real. Até mesmo porquê, no passado foi um sucesso de vendas.

[peccioli]

pra quem achava que a Nikon estava morrendo... 

Somente os haters da marca, e os influenciados por youtubers sensacionalistas e oportunistas acreditaram.

[felipemendes]

Somente os haters da marca, e os influenciados por youtubers sensacionalistas e oportunistas acreditaram.

Na verdade, eu achei por um bom tempo que a marca estava indo num caminho bastante errado. Vide a discussão aqui no fórum sobre a D6. A mesma coisa sobre as primeiras Z6/Z7. Não esqueçamos o press release do sistema Z, dizendo que o padrão F continuaria sendo suportado. Ou do primeiro battery pack da Z6/Z7, que não pode ser segurado nem tem botão de obturador.

Eu diria que a transição foi turbulenta (mais do que pra Canon), mas que tomou o rumo certo rápido.

[peccioli]

Na verdade, eu achei por um bom tempo que a marca estava indo num caminho bastante errado. Vide a discussão aqui no fórum sobre a D6. A mesma coisa sobre as primeiras Z6/Z7. Não esqueçamos o press release do sistema Z, dizendo que o padrão F continuaria sendo suportado. Ou do primeiro battery pack da Z6/Z7, que não pode ser segurado nem tem botão de obturador.

Eu diria que a transição foi turbulenta (mais do que pra Canon), mas que tomou o rumo certo rápido.

Mendes, entendo que uma coisa é achar que a marca está indo em uma direção errada (eu também vi desta forma). Outra é, que por erro inicial a marca Nikon iria a falência - isso eu nunca acreditei. E nunca deixei de acreditar que a empresa  retomaria seu prestigio de grande fabricante de câmeras.
Não seria por um erro inicial do sistema Z, que a empresa deixaria o mercado.

No calor dos debates da Internet sobre a falência eminente da Nikon, lembro de um artigo do Thom Hogan - dizendo que a Nikon era uma empresa saudável, e com caixa para P&D.
E por acreditar na empresa que vendi todo meu equipamento dslr e pulei de cabeça na Nikon Z6II.

[YP]

A mesma coisa sobre as primeiras Z6/Z7. Não esqueçamos o press release do sistema Z, dizendo que o padrão F continuaria sendo suportado. Ou do primeiro battery pack da Z6/Z7, que não pode ser segurado nem tem botão de obturador.

A vinda rápida da Z6ii/Z7ii foi para corrigir todos os erros da primeira geração.
Se tivessem sido lançadas nos moldes da 2ª gen as coisas seriam bem diferentes.